000
AXNT20 KNHC 282324
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA WAS DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT 1007 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W AT 28/2100 
UTC. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED EAST AND IT IS 
DESCRIBED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DISCUSSION. A SMALL AREA OF 
25-KT WINDS WAS LOCATED ABOUT 60 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH 
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS IN MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CIRCULATION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NRN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 
6N11W ALONG 4N16W TO NEAR 5N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM FORMER T.C. RINA IS BRINGING 
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE ERN BASIN WITH 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF 86W S 
OF 27N INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A COLD FRONT LIES BEHIND 
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF ALABAMA 
NEAR 30N88W ALONG 25N93W TO THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO NEAR 
19N96W. DENSE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVE BEHIND THE 
FRONT WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT. A 
PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N86W TO 25N88W GENERATING 
SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM E OF THE THROUGH AXIS. AS THE 
COLD FRONT AND THE REMNANT LOW OF RINA MOVE EASTWARD...EXPECT 
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE WRN 
CARIBBEAN NOTICED ON TPW PRODUCT. WITHIN THIS AREA OF DEEP 
MOISTURE...A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 
19N83W TO NEAR 12N79W. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS 
GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 77W-85W. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING 
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR SW BASIN ALONG 
COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST 
THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HRS WITH CONVECTION. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSE ACROSS THE 
BASIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IS NOTICED ON TPW MOVING ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA STRAITS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN 
ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING 
ACROSS THE GULF MOVES EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS INTO THE WRN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 
32N48W. TO THE S OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...A 1013 MB LOW IS 
NEAR 22N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 25N41W ACROSS THE 
LOW CENTER TO 18N38W. THE CONVECTION GENERATED FROM THIS SYSTEM 
IS REMOVED TO THE E FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 33W-41W. TO THE SW OF 
THIS FEATURE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 18N43W TO 
14N50W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF ITS AXIS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N27W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA