000 AXNT20 KNHC 281746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM RINA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 28/1500 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA AT 28/1500 UTC IS NEAR 21.8N 86.6W...PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF ISLA CONTOY OF MEXICO...OFF THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 48 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST/ 025 DEGREES 5 KT OF MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF RINA. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ANYWHERE FROM 120 NM TO 360 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 13N16W NEAR SENEGAL AND GAMBIA. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE EAST OF 20W...AND FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 26W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 26N95W... TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST FROM 21N TO 22N...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 27N102W IN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM TEXAS AND MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 20N... AND TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SURFACE RIDGE REACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING THROUGH 28N73W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 12N TO 20N. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE WATERS FROM 16N TO SOUTHERN COASTAL CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 22N39W...TO A 17N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N56W...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREAS FROM GUYANA TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 24N56W 19N63W. THE BROAD LARGE-SCALE WIND FLOW BECOMES CYCLONIC TO THE EAST OF THE 32N48W 19N63W LINE... WITH A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WAY AWAY FROM RINA TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE 25N37W 14N56W 8N65W ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W...IN SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND FLOW AND UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 3249W TO 29N64W 28N73W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 22N39W...TO A 17N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N56W...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N42W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N46W...TO 11N48W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N39W 19N38W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 31W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREAS FROM GUYANA TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT