000 AXNT20 KNHC 280553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 87.1W AT 28/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 13 NM W OF CANCUN MEXICO MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/ MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 85W-88W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W ALONG 10N19W TO 9N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N21W ALONG 8N29W TO 7N34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 8N28W TO 4N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 10W-17W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N E OF 88W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 88W-92W. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF IS GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W LOUISIANA AND ALL OF TEXAS. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE W GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL STORM RINA CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. RINA IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON FRI NIGHT INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN TURN S AND REMAIN IN THE CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM RINA REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS AGAIN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES OVER NE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS ALONG 81W ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 18N81W TO 12N80W AND COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT PROVIDED BY THE UPPER RIDGE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM N OF 12N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 73W-84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N84W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 72W-78W. TROPICAL STORM RINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INLAND THROUGH FRI NIGHT WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENTERING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THEN TURN S REMAINING IN THE CARIBBEAN THEN WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 32N W OF 70W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N W OF 75W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 68W-71W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W TO 26N49W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY DISSIPATING FRONT TO 24N63W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO OVER THE SE CONUS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 32N55W AND WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS GIVING THE AREA W OF THE FRONT TO 65W MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N27W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N37W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 16N44W TO A WEAKER THIRD UPPER LOW NEAR 13N58W AND SUPPORTING A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 19N38W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 17N29W TO 23N38W AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N41W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 14N46W TO 13N47W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 41W-44W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRI NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO WESTERN CUBA SAT NIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM E OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SUN INTO MON. A LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT MON AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NE WITH A COLD FRONT FROM E OF BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW