000 AXNT20 KNHC 272355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... T.S. RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 87.2W AT 28/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF COZUMEL MEXICO MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 84W-88W. THE OUTER BANDS EXTEND TO 27N BETWEEN 81W-88W. MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PERSIST NEAR OR OVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THIS...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CYCLONE...SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS OVER NRN AFRICA. A SMALL PORTION OF ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 9N23W TO 7N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. A CLUSTER OF SIMILAR CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...AND GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD AROUND T.S. RINA COVERS THE SE GULF BASIN. THIS FLOW IS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THIS REGION AND GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N E OF 91W. THE OVERALL ACTIVITY IS HINDERED BY VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE RETURN FLOW IS OBSERVED W OF 93W ALONG WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND WRN LOUISIANA. THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE WILL LINGER AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. RINA CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE SE OF T.S. RINA...A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN NOTICED ON TPW PRODUCT. WITHIN THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 18N82W TO NEAR 12N81W. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 75W-85W. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE FAR SW BASIN ALONG COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH CONVECTION. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OUTFLOW FROM T.S. RINA COVERS THE FAR WRN ATLC WITH WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS W OF 75W S OF 28N. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WRN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 32N55W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC WATERS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N38W TO 25N52W DISSIPATING TO 23N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS N OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORTING ITS 1010 MB SURFACE REFLECTION NEAR 19N38W GENERATING A SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 35W-40W. TO THE SW OF THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR 15N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 17N42W ACROSS THE LOW CENTER TO 12N47W. THESE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N25W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA