000 AXNT20 KNHC 261149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 85.3W AT 26/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 200 NM S-SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 178 NM E-SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING W AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 84W-86W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 81W-88W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N E OF 17W TO THE COAST OF GUINEA/ SIERRA LEONE AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 24W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE FAR SE GULF WHERE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SE OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 23N88W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH JUST OFF THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY TO VERACRUZ MEXICO AND WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WHICH IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN THU IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT BEFORE IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH HURRICANE RINA CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. RINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TURNS NE OVER THE SE GULF SAT AS TROPICAL STORM. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE RINA IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS MORNING...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA EXTENDS ACROSS ALL OF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N73W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 63W-80W. THE SURFACE LOW PREVIOUSLY 15N71W HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N65W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 15N69W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF SURFACE FLOW AND THE FLOW ALOFT ARE GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 64W-71W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 71W-80W. HURRICANE RINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW GRADUALLY TUNING MORE NORTHWARD BEFORE ENTERING YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT CONTINUING NE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS S OF 26N W OF 75W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N W OF 55W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N53W TO 26N62W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 24N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 29N32W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N42W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 14N57W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N26W 17N32W THROUGH A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 12N45W TO 11N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N25W 19N29W TO 19N40W INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 41W-47W. WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE W ATLC ALONG THE N PERIPHERY TONIGHT INTO THU THEN SHIFT E FRI ALLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FRI NIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO W CUBA LATE SAT NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW