000 AXNT20 KNHC 260605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 84.8W AT 26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 220 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 NM E-SE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING W AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS BETWEEN 83W-87W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 21N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS BETWEEN 80W-88W INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W TO 8N19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 22W-25W AND FROM 6N-9N E OF 15W TO INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIPS S OVER MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT IN THE SE GULF WHERE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA SE OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA ALONG 25N85W TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE AREA GIVING THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN WEAKEN THU IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT BEFORE IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH HURRICANE RINA CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. RINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND TURN NE THU EVENING CONTINUING NE TO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA SAT AND SUN AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE RINA IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA EXTENDS ACROSS ALL OF CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N72W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE S NEAR 15N71W WITH HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 68W-72W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND COUPLED WITH THE CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THE FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 65W-78W. HURRICANE RINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW GRADUALLY TUNING MORE NORTHWARD BEFORE ENTERING YUCATAN CHANNEL THU NIGHT CONTINUING NE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SW AND MERGE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ON THU. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU AND LINGER THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE RINA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS S OF 27N W OF 74W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N W OF 55W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N57W TO 27N63W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 24N73W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N36W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED BY AN UPPER LOW NEAR 18N41W AND SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N30W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 14N40W AND A 1008 BM LOW NEAR 13N44W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 10N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 13N26W 19N28W TO 18N40W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 42W-45W. WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVERNIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE W ATLC ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WED NIGHT AND THU THEN SHIFT E FRI ALLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FRI NIGHT AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO W CUBA LATE SAT NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW