000 AXNT20 KNHC 252355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA AT 26/0000 UTC IS NEAR 17.5N 84.5W ABOUT 260 MI...425 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL AND 250 MI...405 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 80W-87W. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATERS IN A REGION OF LOW WIND SHEAR. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE SRN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE ALONG 7N12W TO 4N15W TO 3N22W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS AROUND 12N45W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 40W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION FROM RINA ARE ENTERING THE FAR SE GULF ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP CONVECTION EVERYWHERE AT LOW LEVELS. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY REVEALED CLUSTERS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SCATTERED ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION IN THE SE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS RINA APPROACHES THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE RINA IS THE MAIN FOCUS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS THE NW WATERS OF THE BASIN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NOTICED ON TPW PRODUCT. WITHIN THIS AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE...A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 15N70W. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND THE SURFACE LOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 65-77W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WRN NORTH ATLC WATERS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N60W TO 27N64W TO 25N70W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHERE THE GREATEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS NOTICED. ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS S OF 32N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N41W. A SURFACE 1010 MB REFLECTION IS WELL TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 17N30W. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 27W-38W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N35W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA