000 AXNT20 KNHC 251209 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA AT 25/1200 UTC IS NEAR 17.4N 83.8W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN...OR ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO WESTERN JAMAICA...TO 12N81W. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N67W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH TIME... AND IT HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LOW CENTER WILL BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT IS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 7N12W TO 4N17W AND 3N24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 22W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N68W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...TOWARD ITS BASE THAT CUTS RIGHT TOWARD THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 32N65W 27N80W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA... BEYOND 32N66W. THESE CLOUDS ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RINA... THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N69W 30N66W BEYOND 32N64W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM HURRICANE RINA COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN CONNECTION WITH A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N67W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT EACH PHENOMENON. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR DOMINICA IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY IS RELATED TO WHAT MAY BE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 16N62W 21N63W 25N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N62W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA TO 11N80W BEYOND COSTA RICA ALONG 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR DOMINICA IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY IS RELATED TO WHAT MAY BE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 16N62W 21N63W 25N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N42W TO 15N50W... TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N54W... TO 9N61W ALONG THE VENEZUELA ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 17N42W CYCLONIC CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 27W AND 28W...TO THE EAST OF THE 17N42W CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO...AND WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT REACHES 31N10W...STILL IN MOROCCO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N68W 27N75W COLD FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT