000 AXNT20 KNHC 250553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA AT 25/0300 UTC IS NEAR 17.2N 83.3W. RINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W...AND FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W IN THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 13N80W...ACROSS WESTERN JAMAICA...TO CUBA NEAR 20N77W. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N63W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH TIME...AND IT HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE LOW CENTER WILL BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT IS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 7N11W TO 4N16W AND 4N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 23W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA...THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N74W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...TOWARD ITS BASE THAT CUTS RIGHT TOWARD THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 32N69W 27N80W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...BEYOND 32N69W. THESE CLOUDS ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RINA THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 27N76W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 29N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN BERMUDA AND 70W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FROM HURRICANE RINA COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IN CONNECTION WITH A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N63W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT EACH PHENOMENON. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR GUADELOUPE...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY IS RELATED TO WHAT MAY BE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 16N61W 20N62W 24N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N62W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W. THIS PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY IS RELATED TO WHAT MAY BE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 16N61W 20N62W 24N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N42W TO 15N49W... TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N53W... TO 10N61W NEAR TRINIDAD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 17N42W CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO...AND WHOSE SOUTHERNMOST POINT REACHES 31N13W... ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...16N...BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT