000 AXNT20 KNHC 242355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 83.1W AT 24/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 195 MILES...315 KM SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN...OR 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MOVING WNW AT 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 80W-86W. RINA WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS JUST S OF DAKAR SENEGAL ALONG 14N17W TO 15N30W TO 11N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 23W-40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE E OF 21W FROM 1N-8N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS UPPER AIRMASS IS SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNS OF CONVECTION AT LOW LEVELS...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 28N88W TO 27N95W. OTHERWISE...LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY REVEALED THE EXPECTED FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ROAMING THE PREMISES. A WEAK 1021 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF CENTERED NEAR 27N93W. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK... EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE RINA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N64W. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 15N E OF 70W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA ALONG 30N73W TO THE NRN BAHAMAS NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT AXIS...INCLUDING THE WATERS SW OF THE NRN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA