000 AXNT20 KNHC 241145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM RINA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.8N 82.5W AT 24/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NICARAGUA /HONDURAS BORDER...OR ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MOVING N-NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 18N82.5W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 22N80W TO 16N85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W CONTINUING ALONG 13N21W 12N32W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 13N44W TO 11N49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N E OF 18W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 25W-34W...AND FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 38W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FURTHER S OVER THE GULF TO 22N SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND STRETCHING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ACROSS TEXAS AND NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE S GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER S LOUISIANA MOVING INTO THE GULF WATERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST. OUTFLOW FROM THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM RINA IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 26N E OF 83W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE N GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN WEAKEN THU IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AND MOVE OUT OF THE GULF BY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING IS TROPICAL STORM RINA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH RINA COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT TO THE SE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF RINA W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND N OF 14N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 74W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 58W/59W BETWEEN 11N-18N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 13N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 58W-67W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM RINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND BE JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING W TO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED AND WILL MERGE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N75W TO ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR24N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 72W-77W. OUTFLOW FROM THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM RINA IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SW ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N W OF 76W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 58W/59W BETWEEN 11N-18N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 13N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 58W-67W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 34N42W. THE E/W UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS S OF 20N E OF 38W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC TODAY AND WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY TUE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. AN E/W RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WED NIGHT AND THU THEN SHIFT E FRI ALLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW