000 AXNT20 KNHC 240544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM RINA AT 24/0600 UTC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 82.2W OR ABOUT 90 NM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 180 NM S-SW OF GRAND CAYMAN MOVING N-NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 18N82W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 15N-22N BETWEEN 77W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W CONTINUING ALONG 11N20W 12N29W TO 11N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 40W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 53W-58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 31W-48W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 10W-18W. A 1011 MB LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N42W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 42W-44W. A 1010 MB LOW IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N56W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 52W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG FURTHER S OVER THE GULF TO 23N SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND STRETCHING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO TEXAS AND NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE S GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER S LOUISIANA MOVING INTO THE GULF WATERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST. OUTFLOW FROM THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM RINA IS MOVING OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 26N E OF 84W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE N GULF THAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN WEAKEN THU IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AND MOVE OUT OF THE GULF BY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS TROPICAL STORM RINA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH RINA COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT THE S QUADRANT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-75W...FROM PANAMA TO S NICARAGUA S OF 12N W OF 80W...AND HAITI INTO THE GULF OF GONAVE. A BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N E OF 65W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM RINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN REACHING THE YUCATAN COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE MOVING W TO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED AND MERGE INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THROUGH 32N69W ALONG 29N76W ACROSS THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 73W-78W. OUTFLOW FROM THE UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM RINA IS MOVING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SW ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N W OF 77W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-17N W OF 51W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N43W. THE E/W UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS S OF 20N E OF 38W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 23W-40W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC EARLY MON AND WILL ABSORB THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY TUE AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. AN E/W RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WED NIGHT AND THU THEN WEAKEN FRI ALLOWING A SECOND COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FRI NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW