000 AXNT20 KNHC 201147 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N34W 15N40W 10N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N37W 11N45W 8N51W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N54W 10N55W 6N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS SURROUNDED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DUE TO THE LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N11W AND 7N15W...AND FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 19W AND 24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W... INCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. AND STRAIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA ALONG 79W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH THE BORDER OF EASTERN GUATEMALA/NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 20N80W TO 14N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...ALONG THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 20/0000 UTC FOR HAVANA CUBA WAS 1.24 INCHES AND THE TOTAL FOR TEGUCIGALPA WAS 0.51 INCHES. OTHER RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 80W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF 27N...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW... THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12.5N76W...AND FROM LAND TO 13N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 73W. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 72W IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MEAN CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N46W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N TO 32N BETWEEN 42W AND 62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE WATERS FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 56W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W 27N30W 25N20W...BEYOND AFRICA ALONG 25N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 34W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM NORTHERN HAITI TO 26N65W BEYOND 32N60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT