000 AXNT20 KNHC 190602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N33W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N36W...TO 8N37W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 17N29W...AND FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N31W 13N36W 11N44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N55W 10N56W 7N57W. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS MIXED WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N70W... ACROSS THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA... TO WESTERN LAKE MARACAIBO OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN PART OF LAKE MARACAIBO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DUE TO THE LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES SENEGAL NEAR 16N14W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 11N39W 9N44W 9N48W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N50W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 8W AND 24W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W... A DEEP LAYER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. AND STRAIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N90W AND 22N98W AT THE MEXICO GULF COAST. THIS COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA ALL THE CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION THAT HAVE COVERED THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS, ETC. FOR THE LAST FOUR DAYS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 29N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W... ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N84W...AND ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RACING AHEAD OF THE FRONT... COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT INCLUDES THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY WATERS THAT IS NOT BEING AFFECTED YET BY THE HIGH CLOUDS IS THAT SECTION THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE EAST-CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS INCLUDING SOUTHERN BELIZE...ACROSS CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN HAITI...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 72W AND COASTAL NICARAGUA...NEAR PARTS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 25N54W AND 21N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N47W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 44W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N38W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 34W. THE 29N38W LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE WATERS THAT ARE FROM 26N TO 34N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 44W AND 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT