000 AXNT20 KNHC 161148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN...SE GULF OF MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W AT 16/0900 UTC. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 82W-89W. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...CUBA ...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE S GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N35W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N37W TO 7N38W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 5N-14N BETWEEN 32W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 57W BETWEEN 9N-17N MOVING NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SLIGHT MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 9N51W TO 12N56W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N21W TO 7N27W. THE ITCZ HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 25W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 10W-22W AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 17W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR NAPLES TO 25N88W. SURFACE RIDGE IS BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER MISSISSIPPI. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SE GULF PRODUCING A SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA NEAR APALACHICOLA TO JUST N OF TUXPAN MEXICO. NW OF THIS SHEAR AXIS ARE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TO THE SE...MOIST TROPICAL AIR IS BEING ADVECTED OVER THE SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 89W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N W OF 90W. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT WHILE DISSIPATING THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE LOW IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MAY POSSIBLY INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS NW. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE W GULF TUE THROUGH WED AND MOVE E OF THE GULF BY WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RE-BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 20N76W AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 65W AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AND COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N79W THROUGH THE 1003 MB IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES CONTINUING OVER S MEXICO AND IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SW OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO 18N82W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THEW COAST OF CUBA W OF 78W. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES E OF 75W. THE BROAD LOW OVER THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DRIFT NW THROUGH TUE. W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE E CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE AS IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND SUPPORTING A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION JUST E OF BERMUDA EXTENDING ALONG 26N73W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR NAPLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE FRONT W OF 74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF THE FRONT TO 30N. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W ALONG 25N47W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N52W TO OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 48W-55W AND FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 41W-44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 22N63W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 17N65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N E OF 60W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N TODAY AND N OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG 31N. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN LATER TUE THROUGH WED IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY LATE WED THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 31N70W TO W CUBA BY LATE THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW