000 AXNT20 KNHC 151138 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N28W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N32W TO 6N35W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS 17N50W 11N52W 7N55W. NEARBY PRECIPITATION MOST PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N32W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N41W 17N49W TO 12N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 52W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST AROUND 16N17W... TO 15N20W AND 13N22W. MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 18W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS IN A FEW CLUSTERS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 25W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN U.S.A. RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE CONTINENTAL U.S.A. COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 34N70W...TO 30N IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 24N90W... BEYOND 17N100W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SAME LINE. BEYOND 18N100W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. A COLD FRONT CURVES THROUGH 32N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 27N78W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N90W 23N94W...AND ENDING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GUATEMALA LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARD WESTERN CUBA...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 10N76W...INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...THROUGH THE GUATEMALA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. A BROAD CYCLONIC SWEEP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA TO THE WEST OF 70W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS TO THE NORTH OF 17N FROM HAITI WESTWARD... ABOUT 150 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N74W...AND ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 82W AND THE NICARAGUA COASTLINE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CELLS ARE IN THE WATERS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF 72W. THE SURFACE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W TO 16N75W...CURVING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. RAINSHOWERS ARE AROUND HAITI. THE HAITI SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER MONSOONAL GYRE THAT CURRENTLY COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND GRAPHICASTS ON THE NHC WEB PAGE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N32W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N41W 17N49W TO 12N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N32W TO 18N41W 9N47W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 27N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 25N63W TO 16N65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT