000
AXNT20 KNHC 150002
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 300 NM SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS 
FROM 13N29W TO 4N33W MOVING W 10 KT. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE WAS 
WELL DEFINED IN THE 30-METER GFS STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. IN 
ADDITION THERE WAS SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW/MID LEVEL 
CLOUD FIELDS. SCATTRED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
60-90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8-10N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 
18N46W TO 9N52W MOVING NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A 
MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE BOTH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
AND GOES-R PROVING GROUND MET-9 AIRMASS IMAGERY. THE WAVE AXIS 
IS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE E OF THE WAVE IN 
AN AREA FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 45W-49W. AS THE WAVE TRACKS W OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...EXPECT SATELLITE TRACKING OF THE AXIS TO 
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT.  

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 
17N16W TO 15N21W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
OCCURRING WELL S OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF AN ARC FROM 
9N22W TO 8N23W TO 9N25W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA 
TO JUST N OF NAPLES FLORIDA THEN EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF 
OF MEXICO THROUGH 25N90W TO 23N95W THEN TURNS SOUTHWARD IN 
TOPOGRAPHICALLY FORCED NORTHERLY FLOW TO JUST W OF MINATITLAN 
MEXICO. A NARROW ROPE CLOUD DEFINED THE FRONT IN LATE DAY 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS DEPICTED AN AREA 
OF INCREASING NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE EXTREME SW GULF 
ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE. FURTHER SE...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA NEAR THE AXIS OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER N CUBA. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AXIS OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL EXTENDS FROM SE 
LOUISIANA TO A BASE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL 
DIFLUENT SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WAS ADVECTING HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE BULK
OF SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA PER 
REGIONAL RADARS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC A BROAD 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E-CENTRAL 
GUATEMALA NEAR 16N.590W AND WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER 
MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA 
TO THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER TO THE LOW ITSELF. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM BELIZE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
ALONG 21N85W INTO W-CENTRAL CUBA. BROAD CYCLONIC SWEEP OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS RESULTING IN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER NICARAGUA AND 
HONDURAS AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM 18N-21N.
THE SURFACE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY 
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THUS AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE...A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI TO 13N75W MOVING WNW 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-19N 
BETWEEN 70W-74W. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO 
THE LARGER MONSOONAL GYRE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS AND POTENTIALLY EXTEND THE PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN 
GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND GRAPHICASTS ON THE NHC 
WEB PAGE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
  
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO JUST S OF 
PALM BEACH FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM SE 
OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND 
BAHAMAS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE N-CENTRAL COAST OF 
CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 
64W-69W. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 31N32W TO 27N38W...THEN CONTINUES AS A TROUGH TO 
25N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 
29N. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N25W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB