000
AXNT20 KNHC 141750
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N27W TO 
4N32W MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE GFS 
STREAMLINES AND IN THE SATELLITE WINDS. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 26W-31W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 18N46W TO 
10N50W MOVING NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE 
SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 48W-53W.  

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA TO THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W AND CONTINUES TO 15N21W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 
5W-14W...AND FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 17W-23W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO 
SAINT PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
25N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF 
THE FRONT. FURTHER S...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA DUE TO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE S GULF S OF 23N. 10 KT NE 
SURFACE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE 
COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 
W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N GUATEMALA NEAR 
17N90W. A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
THE LOW CENTER TO N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. THE SURFACE LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT 
FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THUS AREAS OF FLASH 
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N70W TO 
14N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
13N-19N BETWEEN 68W-72W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT 
TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION 
ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT AND FAIR WEATHER N OF THE FRONT. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AREA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE W CARIBBEAN WILL HAVE CONTINUED CONVECTION. THE SURFACE 
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO MOVE W TOWARDS 
JAMAICA.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO MELBOURNE 
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. A 
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N74W TO THE N BAHAMAS TO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 64W-69W. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 240 NM NE 
OF THE CENTER. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N32W TO 26N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N20W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE 
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC  
WITH SHOWERS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA