000 AXNT20 KNHC 141118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N26W TO 7N29W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 25W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM 18N44W TO 10N48W MOVING NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W TO NEAR 12N21W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES FROM 6N33W TO 4N43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA S OF 6N W OF 7W...FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 17W-23W...AND WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 9N20W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 12N16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-15W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 32W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 14/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA EXTENDING ALONG 26N89W TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N97W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO BRINGING IN DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE N GULF WITH ACCOMPANYING CLEAR SKIES N OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE SE GULF ANCHORED OVER NE GUATEMALA PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S MEXICO INTO THE S GULF S OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THROUGH SAT THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING MON. A DEVELOPING BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TUE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE SE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AND COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N76W ALONG 15N82W INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 17N87W ACROSS BELIZE/GUATEMALA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 77W AND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W TO THE GULF OF VENEZUELA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-78W. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH. A DEVELOPING BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MEANDER AND DEEPEN THROUGH SUN THEN DRIFT N ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON AND TUE. A TROUGH ALONG 71W WILL SHIFT W TO 75W THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN DAMPEN OUT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN THEN WEAKEN AS MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 75W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N81W EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N77W ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 25N79W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A 1006 MB LOW IS TO THE E NEAR 31N71W AT 14/0900 UTC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 68W-72W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE N TO BEYOND 32N63W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-70W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS BEING INDUCED BY A LARGE UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 21N50W OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN TO 10N59W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N40W TO 21N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 24N. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N74W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY LATE SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH MON. THE 1006 MB LOW WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT FROM THE CAROLINAS TO BERMUDA FROM SAT INTO MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST WED AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW