000 AXNT20 KNHC 121804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N19W 10N22W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 65W/66W AT 12/0600 UTC IS NOT APPARENT ANY MORE. IT HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 12/1200 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 14N16W. IT STARTS AGAIN IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR IT CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO 10N23W 8N28W 8N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N33W TO 9N39W AND 6N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 54W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W...NEAR THE BASE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REACHES 7N56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALSO IS CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM JOVA THAT MADE LANDFALL ALREADY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO LATE LAST NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA... ABOUT 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N93W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM COASTAL MEXICO THAT IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. LOW CLOUDS ARE SWIRLING AROUND THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N93W...FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW CUTS INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...TO THE EAST OF 66W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO THE FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 23N51W 20N53W TO 8N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 67W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N76W IN THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER INTO THE JAMAICA CHANNEL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WINDWARD CHANNEL...AND BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 22N75W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N76W...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 10N79W.NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 28N74W AND THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N76W TO 22N75W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N76W...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 10N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N76W IN THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW CENTER INTO THE JAMAICA CHANNEL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WINDWARD CHANNEL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 25N50W...TO A POSSIBLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N53W...TO 7N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 25N40W TO 10N48W. A SHEAR AXIS AT THE SURFACE IS ALONG 31N33W 26N40W 22N49W 23N56W 26N61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT