000 AXNT20 KNHC 101816 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INLAND NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER...ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA. THIS LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND BECOME LESS DEFINED. THIS LOW CENTER IS NOT FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER WATER. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT IS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME THAT INFORMATION ABOUT THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE GIVEN IN THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W FROM 10N TO 19N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 13N17W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 9N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N22W TO 7N35W AND 7N47W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF HURRICANE JOVA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN... ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 90W TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MIXES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND TROUGH THAT COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BEYOND THE PART OF CUBA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY OCCUPY THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 9OW ALSO REACH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAR AS 13N81W. DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS EXTEND FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W... COVERING HAITI AND IS OFFSHORE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF IT. SIMILAR RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES FROM 16N75W TO 14N80W TO 12N83W...AND THEN ACROSS AND BEYOND NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W... AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N56W TO 18N59W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W 25N43W 22N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 25N46W 22N52W 19N59W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N22W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 31N BETWEEN 13W AND 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N19W TO 17N23W. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS ALONG THE TROUGH FOR THE 10/0600 UTC ANALYSIS HAS DISSIPATED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT