000 AXNT20 KNHC 100544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AS OF 0300 UTC A 999 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EAST COASTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. BUOY 41009 REPORTED 999.7 MB SURFACE PRESSURE AND 40 KT WINDS. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LACK SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 18N55W TO 10N61W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 55W-61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 56W-58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 56W-62W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 08N16W TO 06N20W TO 07N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N24W TO 08N30W TO 07N40W TO 04N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 06W-20W...AND FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 25W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 41W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A GALE LOW IS TRAVERSING NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO W CUBA NEAR 23N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 82W-84W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 30N93W TO 25N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 93W-96W MOVING E. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 91W-97W. EXPECT THE GALE LOW TO BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE IN THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0300 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA ALONG 11N75W 23N83W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 73W-78W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N FROM N COLOMBIA TO N COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM COSTA RICA TO S GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST OVER...THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE...OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A FORMING SURFACE LOW...OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...A GALE LOW IS TRAVERSING NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N38W TO 27N43W TO 24N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 22N60W 24N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. ALSO OF NOTE...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLAND NEAR 18N22W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA