000 AXNT20 KNHC 091856 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2011 CORRECTION IN ORDER TO INCLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 88W...FROM A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST OF TAMPA TOWARD THE APALACHEE BAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA BEYOND 32N TO THE WEST OF 70W. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY BECOME A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN SECTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND MONDAY. PLEASE READ STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION THAT IS SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 6N TO 17N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 18N16W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 19N19W 10N22W 8N26W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N26W TO 8N33W 7N37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 46W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH CUTS ACROSS NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS. AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH REACHES THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAINSHOWERS COVER TEXAS ROUGHLY FROM HOUSTON TO CORPUS CHRISTI TOWARD LAREDO. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 88W...FROM A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST OF TAMPA TOWARD THE APALACHEE BAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA BEYOND 32N TO THE WEST OF 70W. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 27N FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO LESSER THAN GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 13 FEET. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 TO 18 FEET. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY OCCUPY THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 9OW ALSO REACH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS FAR AS 13N81W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS EXTEND FROM 70 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS COVER THE WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA FROM THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN 70W AND THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA TOWARD HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. THIS CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF SURFACE WIND SPEED DIVERGENCE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 12N75W...BEYOND NICARAGUA FROM 12N TO 13N...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 70W... LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 39W AND 70W. THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT INTO WHICH PHILIPPE EVENTUALLY WAS ABSORBED ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. THAT COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 27N44W 24N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N52W TO 23N60W TO 24N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N26W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 19W AND 31W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT