000 AXNT20 KNHC 081148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 31.1N 50.1W AT 08/0900 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 750 NM E OF BERMUDA MOVING E-NE AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER STRONG SW SHEAR WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N44W TO 4N49W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND NOT THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 10N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N20W 6N31W TO 7N43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA S OF 10N AND N OF LINE FROM 2N30W TO 5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 7N BETWEEN 19W-25W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 10W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE E GULF OVER APALACHICOLA FLORIDA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR E GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF FROM 22N-26N E OF 88W TO OVER FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF N OF 25N ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS N GEORGIA TO S ALABAMA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 25N95W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE W GULF. HOWEVER WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 22N. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW OVER N GULF AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR S FLORIDA AND WILL THEN TRACK NE OVER THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W TO NEAR 13N76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1007 MB LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N74W ALONG 11N79W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 11N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 71W-75W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N66W TO PUERTO RICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 68W-72W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 76W WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N68W ACROSS HAITI INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N72W. THE SW TO W FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA SW OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W ALONG 28N73W TO 25N63W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THEN NW ATLC N OF 30N W OF 50W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS JUST TO THE W OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 25N W OF 55W ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLC STATES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE OF PHILIPPE NEAR 29N50W ALONG 26N54W TO 24N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 56W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS E OF PHILIPPE EXTENDING FROM 24N27W CENTERED NEAR 30N34W TO BEYOND 33N36W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 33W-36W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 45W AND ANCHORED NE OF THE AZORES. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WILL MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE W ATLC THROUGH MON. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S FLORIDA OR THE BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT OR SUN THEN WILL TRACK ALONG OR NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM S OF BERMUDA TO THE SE BAHAMAS TUE AND WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW