000 AXNT20 KNHC 080000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE PHILIPPE WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT 07/2100 UTC...LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 54.2W...ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM E OF BERMUDA MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 54W-56W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 51W-55W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N42W TO 2N47W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A A REGION OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN SHOWS BROAD/WEAK CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF IT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 19N16W TO 14N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N23W TO 7N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN BETWEEN 23W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 85W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO THIS REGION...WITH ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA E OF 84W...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS. THE SURFACE FLOW IS OVERALL ANTICYCLONIC 10-25 KT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON THE WEST GULF...TWO LINES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FORM AND HEAD TOWARD THE COAST OF TEXAS W OF 95W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE EAST BASIN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TRADE FLOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 80W. THE SAME UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS ERN CUBA TO S OF JAMAICA ALONG 20N76W TO 17N78W. CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERS AN AREA S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO N OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 65W-70W. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 15N70W. THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE WRN N ATLC SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N W OF 65W. GUSTY NE WINDS ARE OBSERVED IN THIS REGION UP TO 30 KT... EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS JUST TO THE E OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TRACKING NE...EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N36W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 29W-35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA