000
AXNT20 KNHC 071737
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE AT 07/1500 UTC IS NEAR 29.9N 
55.5W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KT. THE 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE 
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 54W-56W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 52W-57W. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N39W 8N41W 3N42W 
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
2N-10N BETWEEN 37W-42W.  

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 
14N17W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W TO 5N30W TO 7N41W 
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 
12W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ 
FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 20W-37W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO. 15-20 KT E-SE WINDS ARE NOTED...EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE WHERE 10 KT SE WINDS PREVAIL. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...OVER CENTRAL AND 
NORTH FLORIDA...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND 
VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF HONDURAS N OF 16N AND W OF 78W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THE MONSOON 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO N COSTA RICA ALONG 11N. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 
11N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W. LASTLY WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 
67W-71W. EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE DRY AREA OVER THE NORTHERN 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 
21N-24N BETWEEN 74W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF HISPANIOLA 
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 67W-74W. HURRICANE PHILIPPE IS FURTHER E. 
SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N37W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E 
OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 29W-35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
HURRICANE PHILIPPE TO MOVE N OF THE AREA AND FOR A SURFACE 
TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N49W TO 
23N60W WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA