000 AXNT20 KNHC 071127 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE AT 07/0900 UTC IS NEAR 29.6N 56.3W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE...FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 54W AND 66W...AND POSSIBLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W FROM 4N TO 12N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE MIXED WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION... FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 17N16W...AND THEN IT IS DISRUPTED AND NOT APPARENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N19W 6N25W 7N31W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS AFFECTING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO THE NORTH OF 27N...IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 28N86W...FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 94W AND 95W...AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SIDES OF THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 65W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS RELATED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 18N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N69W TO THE SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 10N78W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 70W INCLUDING IN THE MONA PASSAGE. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N70W 15N83W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST BEYOND 10N IN COSTA RICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W. THE STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 31N58W. HURRICANE PHILIPPE IS ABOUT 115 NM TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N64W 21N69W...ACROSS HAITI INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N74W. THIS TROUGH IS A REMNANT OF THE EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 65W AND 78W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT... BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 16N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 34W BETWEEN 30W AND 36W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 23W AND 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT