000 AXNT20 KNHC 062346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE AT 06/2100 UTC IS NEAR 28.7N 59.0W OR ABOUT 370 NM SE OF BERMUDA. PHILIPPE IS MOVING NE AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 58W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 56W-59W...AND FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 55W-61W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N32W TO 1N36W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE BROAD LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BETWEEN 28W-42W WITH THE MAXIMUM VALUES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ONLY A LITTLE OFF THE WEST AFRICAN COAST FROM 17N16W TO 17N18W. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE WAY TO THE SOUTH. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 17W-21W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 25W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA. 10-15 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN. WHILE MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES...A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHILE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW GULF FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 91W-95W. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 25N93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE E AND NE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS HELPING SUPPORT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS SRN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND NRN COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NRN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TURKS AND CAICOS TO HAITI WHICH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS HAITI. AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY LIES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 66W-70W. 10-15 KT ELY TRADEWIND FLOW IS BASIN-WIDE. ALOFT...A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT THE AREA OF MOISTURE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN TO ADVECT WWD WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DOMINATING THE WRN ATLC WITH A SWATCH OF MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW FROM TURKS AND CAICOS NE TO JUST W OF HURCN PHILIPPE. THIS IS PRODUCING OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 25N72W TO 22N75W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N70W TO HAITI NEAR 19N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS HAITI WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 65W-69W. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS TO THE SW OF PHILIPPE EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN. TO THE E OF PHILIPPE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 26N48W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N49W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FARTHER E SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS...A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 32N39W...AND A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER OF THE SECOND LOW TO NEAR 24N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE SYSTEM N OF 26N BETWEEN 30W-36W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 19N-29N BETWEEN 25W-32W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE...IS ALSO FARTHER S ALONG 15N39W TO 10N42W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS. ACROSS THE FAR ERN ATLC...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES CENTERED NEAR 13N16W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON