000
AXNT20 KNHC 061806
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PHILIPPE AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR 27.8N 
60.0W OR ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SE OF BERMUDA. PHILIPPE IS MOVING 
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY 
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 26N-32N 
BETWEEN 58W-62W. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS 240 NM N 
OF THE CENTER AND WEAKENING.  

...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N30W 7N32W 2N32W 
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 30W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ALSO FURTHER E FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 21W-28W. 

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 16N38W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 10N40W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
AN EXPOSED LOW CENTER WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION.  

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W 
AND ENDS NEAR 18N18W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OFFSHORE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-19W WELL S OF THE AFRICAN 
MONSOON TROUGH. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO. 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS ARE NOTED. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...OVER CENTRAL 
FLORIDA...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE 
S GULF. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND 
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N AND W OF 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER 
HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF THE ISLAND 
FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 67W-70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N 
COLOMBIA TO N COSTA RICA ALONG 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. LASTLY WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 
9N-14N E OF 63W. EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE DRY AREA OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHEARLINE IS E OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N64W 23N73W. 20 KT WINDS 
ARE N OF THE AXIS AND 5 KT TO THE SOUTH. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS. HURRICANE 
PHILIPPE IS FURTHER E. SEE ABOVE. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
32N37W. ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N37W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THIS LOW TO 24N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FURTHER E FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 29W-36W.     

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA