000 AXNT20 KNHC 060558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 26.4N 61.0W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING NORTHWARD 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 40 NM OF THE 26.5N 61W. PHILIPPE IS WEDGED IN BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE AND A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N48W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N49W...TO 25N55W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 31N60W AND IT CONTINUES 27N65W 24N73W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 24N73W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W FROM 5N TO 13N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N37W 14N41W 10N44W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 17N16W. IT DOES NOT REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NO ITCZ EXISTS BECAUSE OF NO TRADEWIND CONFLUENT FLOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...AND CUBA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 24N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 16N68W...TOWARD THE BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITH COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO 16N81W...ABOUT 170 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WESTERN JAMAICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/ STATIONARY FRONT... THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 31N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 31N60W AND IT CONTINUES 27N65W 24N73W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 24N73W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 23N86W IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 27N70W...TO 21N76W IN CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/ STATIONARY FRONT... BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 52W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 24N41W TO 16N43W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 400 TO 500 NM TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N24W 23N30W 18N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT