000 AXNT20 KNHC 052351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.8N 61.3W AT 05/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 58W-62W. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SHEAR AND INTERACT WITH A FRONT/TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N29W TO 5N31W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS CONTINUES TO FRACTURE AND MOVE NORTH DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN SHOWS CYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 25W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N36W TO 10N44W. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE STRETCHED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MAINLY NE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... DUE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELDS OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...THE OCEANIC MONSOON TROUGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED...WITH THE REMAINING AXIS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE... AND GUINEA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. DESPITE THE BENIGN WEATHER...A SHEAR LINE/REMNANT CLOUD AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE FAR E GULF BASIN ALONG 24N80W TO 23N86W. WHILE SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE FAR E AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA SHOWED AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN THE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT WITH 20-25 KT WINDS N OF THE AXIS AND 5-10 KT WINDS S OF THE AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N91W TO 18N94W GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW BASIN. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N W OF 78W. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA... GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 13N E OF 70W. LOOK FOR MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR SE AND S CENTRAL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AREA ALONG 31N60W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. FROM THIS POINT THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE AXIS EXTENDING W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND 24N80W. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 140 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 77W. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS JUST TO THE E OF THIS BOUNDARY TRACKING NORTHWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT/TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N34W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 30N30W TO 24N35W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 29W-35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA