000 AXNT20 KNHC 051745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.3N 61.3W AT 05/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 460 NM S-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING NW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 59W-62W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 03N28W TO 14N27W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS CONTINUES TO FRACTURE AND MOVE NORTH DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS APPARENT OVER THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 26W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07N48W TO 13N40W. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE STRETCHED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC. CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE WAVE S OF 11N... HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 35W-41W MAINLY NE OF THE WAVE AXIS...AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 17N19W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AND SUBSIDENT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN WHICH IS IN SUPPORT OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DRY AIRMASS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF IN SUPPORT OF A STALLED OUT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF FROM 24N80W TO 23N87W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN PLACE AND ROTATING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH THURSDAY...REMNANT ENERGY AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF FROM 21N92W TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W TO 23N66W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. THIS DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM 20N77W TO 15N83W. FARTHER SOUTH...NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ALONG 10N TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. FINALLY...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. EAST OF THIS AXIS...LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONVERGENT E OF 70W AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N E OF 70W...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED AND INTENSE TSTMS OCCURRING OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN SEABOARD IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AREA NEAR 32N60W WHICH EXTENDS SW ALONG 27N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. THE FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY AND EXTENDS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND 24N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 70W WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 70W. FARTHER SE OF THE FRONT OVER THE OPEN ATLC HIGH SEAS WATERS... TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A NORTHERLY TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY REDIRECT NORTHEASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 50W AND REMAINS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N48W. A CONTRASTING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 36N45W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N33W. BOTH REMAIN AMPLIFIED AND THEREFORE AT THE SURFACE A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N33W REMAINS EMBEDDED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTERED ALONG 28N31W TO 23N38W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 24N-33N BETWEEN 28W-37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN