000 AXNT20 KNHC 041744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 04/1500 UTC IS NEAR 23.9N 59.4W OR ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM SSE OF BERMUDA. PHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 58W-60W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N35W 10N40W 6N41W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 37W-48W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 27W-31W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 7N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 9N45W TO 8N54W TO VENEZUELA AT 09N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 20W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ AND E OF TRINIDAD FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 52W-60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 56W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 22N86W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE... BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO S OF 22N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT NE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF IN VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WHERE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE GULF OF HONDURAS ...AND HONDURAS FROM 20N87W TO 14N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 15W-20W BETWEEN 80W-87W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT. FURTHER S...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 10N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 73W-76W...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W. RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 63W-68W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W S OF 65N. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N66W TO 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-67W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. T.S. PHILIPPE HAS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION S OF THE CENTER. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N30W TO 25N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE TROUGH FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 24W-27W. EXPECT LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA