000 AXNT20 KNHC 040532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR 25.8N 54.9W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN CUTTING ACROSS THE CIRCULATION THAT IS AROUND PHILIPPE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N32W 11N35W 7N36W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THAT MOST PROBABLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH...IS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 23N35W 17N44W AND 10N49W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 18N30W 14N40W 10N43W BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W AND 9N27W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 8N42W AND GOES TO 7N54W...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. THE ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 64W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AT 26N...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N70W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND WESTERN CUBA...TO THE EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N69W TO THE MONA PASSAGE...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W AT THE COLOMBIA BORDER...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN THE WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTH OF 11.5N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...TO THE EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS TO 20N. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W ALONG THE BELIZE COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 53W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 23N35W 17N44W AND 10N49W. PART OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS AROUND TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N31W TO A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N35W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 34W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT