000 AXNT20 KNHC 031158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... OPHELIA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. AT 03/1200 UTC IT IS CENTERED NEAR 47.1N 54.3W. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 30 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AT 03/0900 UTC IS NEAR 25.8N 54.9W. PHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CUTTING INTO PHILIPPE FROM THE NORTH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W FROM 10N TO 17N. ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE ALSO IS MIXED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH PRECIPITATION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 10N30W AND 7N41W. THE ITCZ DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT BECAUSE OF NO CONFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 5N TO 11N...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W... JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 64W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WHOSE MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR COVERS THE AREA IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR BERMUDA...TO 31N66W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N66W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...BEYOND WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE WITHIN 240 TO 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N65W TO 20N72W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM ANDROS ISLAND...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 83W/84W FROM EXTREME EASTERN HONDURAS TO 21N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 15N78W TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD AND LARGE-SCALE WEAK CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N75W BEYOND 10N...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 54W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES FROM AN AZORES CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 19N37W. PART OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA THAT IS AROUND TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N28W TO 27N29W TO 24N33W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REACHES 31N17W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT