000 AXNT20 KNHC 030001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 42.4N 59.8W AT 03/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 390 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 29 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 40N-44N BETWEEN 56W-62W. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.3N 52.9W AT 02/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 720 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 50W-54W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N27W TO 10N28W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS BUT HAS LITTLE CLOUD SIGNATURE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W 16N19W S TO 11N22W 9N29W TO 7N37W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N37W 6N44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 20W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKE REGION TOWARD NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC N OF 25N E OF 92W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W OVER W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 20N94W TO 21N96W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE GULF N OF 27N AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NW CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO WITHIN 150/180 NM OF THE N GULF COAST WHERE CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER THE S GULF WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL WEAKEN SOME ON MON THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN BEGINNING ON TUE AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO E CUBA NEAR 20N78W. A BAND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N80W TO THE TIP OF NE NICARAGUA/NE HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 80W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER JAMAICA HAVE MOVED N OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W-75W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS ALONG 13N. GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N69W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N67W ALONG 28N71W TO 26N76W WHERE IT CROSSES THE BAHAMAS AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N68W TO 23N72W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W TO BEYOND 32N62W ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF OF A LINE FROM 22N72W TO BEYOND 32N65W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-65W IN WHICH TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS EMBEDDED. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N58W EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG 13N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 10N53W INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN OVER GRENADA. A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 15W-50W WHICH IS HELPING TO SHEAR TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS N OF THE REGION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1009 MB LOW N OF THE AZORES THROUGH 32N23W TO 27N26W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM BERMUDA TO W CUBA THROUGH MID WEEK. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL MERGE WITH TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE ON WED. PHILIPPE WILL MOVE NE WED NIGHT DRAGGING THE FRONTAL REMNANTS E THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW