000 AXNT20 KNHC 021751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 40.3N 60.3W AT 02/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 495 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N-NE AT 29 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 37N-42N BETWEEN 56W-63W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.3N 51.7W AT 02/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 770 NM E-SE OF BERMUDA MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE OCCURRING FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 48W-53W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 07N28W TO 15N26W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WHILE THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH...VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-30W. LOOKING AT THE UPPER AIR TIME SECTION ANALYSES...IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE PASSED DAKAR SENEGAL BETWEEN 30/0000 UTC AND 30/1200 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 25W-30W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W ALONG 15N20W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N34W TO 06N55W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 15N20W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 16W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD...THE GULF IS PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 24N WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR W OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EAST OF THIS LINE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROVIDING MODERATE SUPPORT FOR A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS W-SW TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 21N93W TO 22N97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 92W...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW GULF S OF THE FRONT W OF 92W. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE FRONT...OTHER THAN A STABLE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...THE BASIN AND COASTLINE...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS HONDURAS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. THIS UPPER AIR REGIME ALONG WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 13N84W TO 20N84W IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 81W. THE SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN AS GENERALLY E-NE TRADES CONVERGE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 09N77W TO 15N83W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 14N56W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE NE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...OVER THE EXTREME FAR SE CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD AND PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SW OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 13N E OF 69W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDS TROUGHING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. EAST OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 29N69W TO 25N74W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WITH THE HELP OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 64W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AND AS OF THIS MORNING HAD A WELL EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. PHILIPPE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 15N BETWEEN 30W-64W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N25W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING S-SW TO A BASE NEAR 21N36W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N14W TO 29N17W. WEST OF THE FRONT...A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 32N22W TO 28N28W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE THESE BOUNDARIES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN