000 AXNT20 KNHC 012344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 32.5N 62.4W AT 02/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-34N BETWEEN 60W-65W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 25.2N 49.1W AT 01/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MOVING W-NW AT 08 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 45W-50W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 10N20W TO 07N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N37W TO 06N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 14W-22W...AND FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 26W-30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 47W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS ALONG 26N80W 24N90W 26N97W. THIS FRONT IS PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY CONVECTION. THERE IS HOWEVER A 2O DEGREE FAHRENHEIT DROP IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DEPICTING A DRIER AIRMASS N OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 90W-96W. THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 25N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA ...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA AT 26N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 75W-78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 68W-72W. TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS OPHELIA AND PHILIPPE SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N15W TO 26N23W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO THE CANARY ISLANDS OVER FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA