000 AXNT20 KNHC 302333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 24.7N 63.0W AT 30/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 59W-65W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 46.2W AT 30/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1100 MI...1775 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO 7N30W TO 4N36W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N36W TO N BRAZIL AT 4N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 17W-28W...FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 41W-45W... AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 47W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS ALONG 30N83W 28N90W 26N97W. THIS FRONT IS PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY CONVECTION. THERE IS HOWEVER A 1O DEGREE FAHRENHEIT DROP IN DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DEPICTING A DRIER AIRMASS N OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 90W-96W. THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 NORTHERLY WINDS. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 27N WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO S TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA ...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY 10 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA...AND IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 71W-76W. TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS OPHELIA AND PHILIPPE SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 33N22W TO 28N30W 28N40W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THE E ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 31N16W TO 20N40W. METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST FROM 8N-27N E OF 38W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE FURTHER E INTO THE E ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA