000 AXNT20 KNHC 292334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 62.3W AT 29/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 61W-64W. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER THAT EXTENDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITHIN 45 NM OF 21N59W 18N60W 16N63W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 43.6W AT 29/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... OR ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 39W-46W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 10N31W TO 4N34W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS RELATIVELY LOW-LATITUDE WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 31W-36W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO 12N26W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 22W-29W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 39W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 30N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S TEXAS S OF 31N E OF 100W. A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH. FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 90W-99W. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO DISSIPATE AND 10-15 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS TO PREVAIL IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA ...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY 10 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 74W-79W. TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS OPHELIA AND PHILIPPE SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 33N26W TO 29N40W MOVING SE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N27W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA TO MOVE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DIP FURTHER SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA