000 AXNT20 KNHC 282339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.3N 60.6W AT 28/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING N-NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. OPHELIA IS BEING SHEARED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 58W-61W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.0N 39.7W AT 28/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PHILIPPE IS BEING SHEARED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 38W-41W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 11N29W TO 4N30W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS RELATIVELY LOW-LATITUDE WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-35W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO 12N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 18W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 35W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES FROM N GEORGIA TO E TEXAS. PREFRONTAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE N GULF WATERS N OF 29N FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E LOUISIANA. A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 92W-96W MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY. INLAND PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...JAMAICA...ANS CUBA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SE OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 61W-64W ADJACENT TO THE CONVECTION DUE TO OPHELIA. LASTLY WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 70W-75W DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 71W-79W. TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORMS OPHELIA AND PHILIPPE SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 34N40W TO 33N58W MOVING SE. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 40W-43W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N20W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA TO MOVE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DIP FURTHER S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA