000 AXNT20 KNHC 271153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 35.1W AT 27/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 640 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PHILIPPE HAS BECOME SHEARED OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TO THE W OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 31W-34W. A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANT LOW OF OPHELIA...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 56W-61W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 48W BETWEEN 11N-16N MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMING LESS DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS AND WITH LITTLE CLOUD SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA NOT ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-12N BETWEEN 21W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST E OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GULF N OF 25N SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS INLAND STRETCHING FROM NE GEORGIA TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA/TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE N OF GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 27/0900 UTC FROM SW GEORGIA JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO ALONG THE FLORIDA W COAST TO NEAR FORT MYERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA N OF 24N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N90W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. CLEAR SKIES ARE FOUND OVER THE REMINDER OF THE GULF. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF FRI AND EXTEND FROM FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS SAT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ON SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 20N W OF 77W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS OVER THE TIP OF NE NICARAGUA/NE HONDURAS AND COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND S NICARAGUA 11N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N W OF 75W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 71W-75W. THE UPPER RIDGE ASSOCIATE WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF OPHELIA EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLANDS FROM SAINT LUCIA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA WILL MOVE NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WED BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N79W TO BEYOND 32N76W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N79W TO BEYOND 32N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM THE E TIP OF CUBA THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N76W TO 28N78W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N71W ALONG 25N71W TO OVER THE MONA PASSAGE PRODUCING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 66W-70W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 65W-73W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 30N55W AND PROVIDING DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 58W-80W ANCHORED BY 1019 MB HIGH JUST SW OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E ATLC TO 18N BETWEEN 25W-50W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N29W TO 25N36W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 23N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA WILL MOVE NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH WED BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHERLY CONTINUING N THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW ATLC FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW