000 AXNT20 KNHC 261142 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 33.4W AT 26/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 520 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 14N33W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 32W-35W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED 17N45W TO 10N43W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS WITH LITTLE CLOUD SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N16W TO 12N24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 5N22W TO 9N23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N22W TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N24W AND FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 30W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE US AND INTO THE GULF N OF 25N GIVING MOST OF THE GULF W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF GULF IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A SMALL UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 80W-88W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W ALONG 27N86W TO 24N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CONTINUING S TO S MEXICO IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N GULF LATE FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SMALL UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS EXTENDING N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 75W TO THE YUCATAN. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA AND COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 69W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER LOW LOCATED N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH S OVER THE NORTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HAITI. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS S FLORIDA TO JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N79W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W 26N79W TO BEYOND 32N76W TO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SE US. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED ABOUT 200 NM E OF BERMUDA PROVIDING DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-76W AND A SWATH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND WITHIN 150 NM TO THE E. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE SW ATLC N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 24N72W TO OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 65W-69W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 24N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HAITI. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA REMAIN AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N56W THROUGH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N60W CONTINUING S OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 12N62W IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N53W TO 20N60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-78W ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E ATLC TO 21N BETWEEN 30W-53W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W ALONG 28N39W TO 25N46W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM E OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N34W TO 32N26W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH JUST E OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...1011 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SW ATLC BY EARLY TUE AND SLOWLY PASS NORTHWARD REMAINING E OF 70W THROUGH FRI. THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS W TROPICAL ATLC BY WED MORNING AND REACH THE E CARIBBEAN THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW