000 AXNT20 KNHC 260553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH WWWW UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 32.5W AT 26/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 475 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NE OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WHICH COVERS THE AREA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 32W-35W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED 17N44W TO 9N43W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CLOUD SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 20N16W TO 17N19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL AND GAMBIA S OF DAKAR AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 3N18W TO 11N24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E HALF OF THE US AND INTO THE GULF N OF 25N GIVING MOST OF THE GULF W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. MOST OF GULF IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. A SMALL UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 80W-90W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E GULF FROM 28N86W TO 24N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF A LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO S MEXICO IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N GULF LATE FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SMALL UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 20N86W EXTENDING N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N W OF 76W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA AND COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 71W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER LOW LOCATED N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH S OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HAITI. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE THE E CARIBBEAN THU AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS S FLORIDA TO OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 30N80W PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE TO BEYOND 32N79W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N BETWEEN 77W-82W INCLUDING S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 77W TO OVER SE US. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC ANCHORED ABOUT 200 NM NNW OF BERMUDA PROVIDING DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-76W AND A SWATH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND WITHIN 150 NM TO THE E. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE SW ATLC N OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 23N72W TO OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 64W-71W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 22N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HAITI. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA REMAIN AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N58W THROUGH A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N61W TO 15N65W IN THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N54W 19N57W TO 19N63W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 50W-75W ANCHORED BY 1021 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E ATLC TO 21N BETWEEN 30W-50W SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N38W TO 27N44W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 38W-45W EXPANDING TO WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH JUST NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STATIONARY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT N OF THE AREA THROUGH MON. THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...1011 MB SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SW ATLC BY EARLY TUE AND SLOWLY PASS NORTHWARD REMAINING E OF 70W THROUGH FRI. THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS W TROPICAL ATLC BY WED MORNING AND REACH THE E CARIBBEAN THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW