000 AXNT20 KNHC 171805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N20W. THE LOW CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W...TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N20W... TO 11N33W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N37W...TO 8N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N44W TO 8N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 9N30W 7N40W 6N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. CONFLUENT SURFACE WIND FLOW IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 39W AND 40W...AND RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 31W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 29N73W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS BELIZE...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND 81W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND THEN IT SWINGS NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARED POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 96W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 29N73W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS BELIZE...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N58W 15N59W...ACROSS BARBADOS...TO 11N60W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM TRINIDAD FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC WAS 1.29 INCHES. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NOW IS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 22N64W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N65W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TOWARD THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND THE VENEZUELA COAST ALONG 68W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR PUERTO RICO FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 17/1200 UTC WAS 0.29 INCHES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM PUERTO RICO TO 26N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 76W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 85W FROM 14N IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA TO 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 29N73W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS BELIZE...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 34N36W CYCLONIC CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE CUBA COASTAL WATERS TO 29N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N36W...TO 21N43W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 23W AND 50W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 30N33W TO 28N38W AND 28N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 26N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 33W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N11W TO 30N14W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 20W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT