000 AXNT20 KNHC 161159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 42.6N 58.2W AT 16/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 325 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 39 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS OF 43N59W. MARIA IS MOVING RAPIDLY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION EXPECTED BY TONIGHT TAKING MARIA NEAR OR OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W ALONG 12N22W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 9N32W TO 7N47W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 7N47W INTO SOUTH AMERICA OVER GUYANA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 23W AD THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 8N30W TO 5N40W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-27W AND FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 26W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF WE OF 87W INTO THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER NE FLORIDA BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND THE BIG BEND AREA ALONG 27N89W TO 28N91W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST S OF GALVESTON BAY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE FRONT TO JUST INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS E OVER MOST OF THE W GULF TO 87W WITH AN INVERTED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM NEAR VERACRUZ TO 21N93W GIVING RISE TO A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO 17N91W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO JUST N OF TUXPAN AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 94W. THE ESTABLISHED DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN ALLOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF BETWEEN 22N-26N W OF 84W WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY SAT NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER EASTERN SEABOARD BUILD SW INTO NE GULF SUN AND MON AND WEAKEN ON TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 77W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 83W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 69W-72W. THESE UPPER TROUGHS ARE NARROWING THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 80W FROM 10N-18N GENERATING SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO CUBA BETWEEN 73W-83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL EXTEND SW THROUGH MON ALLOWING TRADES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF E CARIBBEAN THEN WEAKEN LATE MON AND TUE AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL POSSIBLY FORM IN SW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE MARIA IS WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 71W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 16/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 32N71W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 24N80W. ESTABLISHED DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA W OF SURFACE TROUGH GIVING THAT AREA REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N76W ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR BERMUDA. A LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS CENTERED NEAR 18N61W COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-27N BETWEEN 52W-70W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N-24N BETWEEN 52W-63W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD...LEEWARD...AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 70W WITH A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WILL SLOWLY MOVE W REACHING FROM 27N76W TO W CUBA MON AND TO ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY TUE. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S ALONG UNITED STATES E COAST SAT THROUGH SUN BEFORE WEAKENING MON AND TUE ALLOWING TRADES TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF TROPICAL N ATLC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW