000 AXNT20 KNHC 160547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 40.0N 62.0W AT 16/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 555 NM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING NE AT 38 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 37N63W TO 42N66W. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER AVALON PENINSULA ON THIS AFTERNOON. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 12N22W THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 9N31W TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 8N45W TO NEAR 8N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA BETWEEN 10N-14N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-40W...FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 33W-40W...AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 50W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS E OVER THE GULF TO 90W WHILE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ALONG 28N90W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR GALVESTON BAY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE FRONT TO THE N GULF COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N91W TO INLAND OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N90W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 92W. ESTABLISHED DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NE GULF AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SW FROM OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE NE GULF BY SUN. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN AND MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 77W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N BETWEEN 81W-87W. THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N E OF 67W ACROSS WITH WINDWARD ISLANDS. THESE UPPER TROUGHS ARE NARROWING THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-80W ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG THE N COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N80W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 76W-81W. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BUILD OVER THE W ATLC...NE OF THE AREA THROUGH MON ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER E CARIBBEAN THEN WILL WEAKEN SOME LATE MON AND TUE AS POSSIBLE BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE MARIA IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 72W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 16/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 32N69W TO 25N75W. ESTABLISHED DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE AREA W OF SURFACE TROUGH GIVING THE AREA REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BETWEEN 70W-77W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS TO THE SE OF MARIA CENTERED NEAR 20N58W COVERING THE AREA FROM 10N-28N BETWEEN 52W-68W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 56W-61W AND ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC AND THE SE CARIBBEAN. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 17N E OF 70W WITH A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WILL SLOWLY MOVE W REACHING FROM W CUBA MON AND TO ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY TUE. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S ALONG THE UNITED STATES E COAST SAT THROUGH SUN BEFORE WEAKENING MON AND TUE ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW