000 AXNT20 KNHC 151150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.9N 67.8W AT 15/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 175 NM W-SW OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-33N BETWEEN 64W-70W AND FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 65W-69W. THERE IS POSSIBILITY THAT MARIA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY BUT WEAKENING THEREAFTER. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA THROUGH TODAY. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC OVER DAKAR SENEGAL THEN SW THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N22W ALONG 10N33W TO 7N43W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 7N43W ALONG 7N53W TO INLAND OVER GUYANA SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 4N28W TO 8N41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 8N15W TO 4N27W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 15N47W TO 9N59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER S/CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS E OVER THE GULF TO 90W WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 91W-95W. ESTABLISHED DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF GIVING THE MOST OF THE GULF REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE N GULF BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N89W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF EARLY TONIGHT THEN STALL OVER THE NE GULF AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL ALLOW FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF BY SUN. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MIGRATE W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN AND MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM THE S COAST OF CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO 18N80W INCLUDING THE W TIP OF JAMAICA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 12N BETWEEN 65W-75W AND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE S COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N71W TO 12N76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG THE N COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N80W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 66W-75W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH MON ALLOWING TRADES TO INCREASE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE W ATLC...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 72W WITH ESTABLISHED DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE AREA GIVING THE W ATLC W OF 74W REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF MARIA NEAR 26N72W ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE NE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N76W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS TO THE SE OF MARIA CENTERED NEAR 21N53W COVERING THE AREA FROM 11N-30N BETWEEN 43W-64W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 50W-56W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 64W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N53W. TROPICAL STORM WILL ACCELERATE AND STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES N THIS AFTERNOON. TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH FROM MARIA EXTENDING THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NW AND OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA SUN. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH MON ALLOWING TRADES TO INCREASE OVER TROPICAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW