000 AXNT20 KNHC 142342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 26.3N 69.3W AT 14/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SW OF BERMUDA AND 450 MI...720 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MOVING N AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 64W-70W. THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRAW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN N OF 15N 65W-71W. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS FEATURE...READ EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 16N17W ALONG A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N21W WESTWARD ALONG 11N TO W OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 10N45W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N47W TO THE EASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N44W TO 8N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-13N E OF 25W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE VISIBLE SHOWS FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N E OF 92W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N91W THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA...CURRENTLY OVER NW ARKANSAS...WILL INTRODUCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE N CENTRAL AND FAR NE GULF WATERS WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... WHILE TROPICAL STORM MARIA CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC...THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRAW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 66W-71W...INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE COAST OF SANTO DOMINGO...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO 14N72W. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY CROSSES JAMAICA FROM 20N74W TO 16N79W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FOUND WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF MARIA...THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRAW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 65W-71W. WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR W OF 75W MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF THIS LONGITUDE INCLUDING THE WATERS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER EAST...A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N48W WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE N OF 15N E OF 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA