000 AXNT20 KNHC 140551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.8N 68.5W AT 14/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 255 NM E-NE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND ABOUT 550 NM S-SW OF BERMUDA MOVING N-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 19N67W TO 25N68W. A BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 19N60W 25N62W TO 27N67W. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 22N61W TO 13N61W MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT. HOWEVER...THIS WAVE IS WEAKENING AS IT IS BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MARIA AND WILL BE DROPPED FROM THE 0600 UTC ANALYSIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 90W S OF 20N DRIFTING W. ANY CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW OFF THE COAST NEAR 13N19W ALONG 9N30W TO 9N41W. THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO CONVERGING NE/SE FLOW...SO NO ITCZ AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA INCLUDING LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N30W TO 11N47W AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 53W-57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 19W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE E CONUS INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF AND USHERING IN DRY STABLE AIR GIVING THE GULF REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIA KEYS. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF AND AT 14/0300 UTC IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N89W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE N GULF THROUGH FRI. THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY CAMPECHE THU AND FRI. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NE GULF WILL THEN STRENGTHEN SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S TO OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W-83W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO AND EXTENDS E ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N TO 78W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N E OF 82W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 73W USHERING IN DRY STABLE AIR GIVING THE AREA W OF 75W REMARKABLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME S FLORIDA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST S OF FORT LAUDERDALE. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING N OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 58W-72W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING TROPICAL STORM MARIA N OF 19N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 59W-73W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS TO THE E OF MARIA CENTERED NEAR 25N43W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 55W AND N OF 30N BETWEEN 50W-80W WITH A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N52W. TROPICAL STORM MARIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE N AND BE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY THU MORNING. A TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF MARIA THU AND FRI THEN SHIFT W SAT TO JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SUN. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S ALONG THE UNITED STATED E COAST SAT AND SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW